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Not Really Wrong On Bonds
It is often said that the market for US Treasuries is the deepest and most liquid in the world. While that’s true, we have to be careful about what it is we are talking about. There is no single US...
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COT Report: Black (Crude) and Blue (UST’s)
Over the past month, crude prices have been pinned in a range $50 to the high side and ~$46 at the low. In the futures market, the price of crude is usually set by the money managers (how net long they...
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COT Blue: Bonds Are Not Tuned In To The Mainstream Channel
You do have to wonder to whom the increasingly shrill bond market declarations are being directed. It’s very likely that Bloomberg’s now daily haranguing “the yield curve can’t possibly be right”...
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COT Blue: May 29 Not Trade War
I have to hand it to my colleague Joe Calhoun. In recent months, he’s been able to almost perfectly predict the Trump Administration’s response tactics to all this trade war stuff. Back in July, it was...
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COT Blue: A Short-term Path For Powell
On December 12, 2007, the Federal Reserve announced its entry into emergency “non-standard” policy measures. In a belated attempt to “address elevated pressures in short-term funding markets”, the US...
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COT Blue: The Big Warning Renewed
It’s seems like a very long time ago now, back on March 1 the UST curve un-inverted. While most have been focused on the 2s10s, it was the middle front of the yield curve which has been out in front...
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COT Blue Supplement: OI Warned Again Last Week
Nervous people tend not to sit still. The term nervous energy means just that. When you’re worried about something, your mind is telling you to use up the resources your body is providing to search for...
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Swap Mean
Little noticed at the time, October 2012 was quite the roller coaster. Most anyone cared about was QE3, the wonderful, awesome flood of liquidity kindly wise-man Chairman Bernanke had restarted for...
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The Warehouse Gap Does Much To Fill In Why There Were Never Too Many Treasuries
Long bond futures, open interest. There really shouldn’t be much to glean from just the raw count of US Treasury futures contracts at any given time, yet throughout the past quarter-century you could...
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